Repeated Russian strikes could exhaust Ukrainian cities’ heating reserves, analysts warn

Repeated Russian attacks on the same Ukrainian city this winter could exhaust reserve supplies faster than crews can restore heating, Foreign Affairs authors warn in an analysis reported by UNIAN on October 23. Freezing conditions could then cause pipes to burst.

The authors identify Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa as possible examples. Persistent, worsening local power outages despite repairs would signal danger, they argue. Timely deliveries of equipment and air defence systems could reduce the risks.

The analysis also describes a dilemma for Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil refineries: a pause could give Moscow time to repair facilities, while continued attacks could risk access to US intelligence or Starlink services. This is a possible scenario, rather than an announced US decision.

Decentralised generation, batteries and mobile equipment help energy systems withstand attacks. But the authors argue that resilience can also prolong the exchange of strikes, and that ending the cycle requires a politically agreed ceasefire.